Week Thirteen Analysis





TOP HEADLINE

Mike has a massive comeback game but no teams have clinched a playoff spot!


LEAGUE WIDE ANALYSIS

Highest Team Score: Mike with 149.14 pts

Lowest Team Score: Patrick with 71.30 pts

Highest Margin: Anthony crushed Mike by 50.5 points

Narrowest Margin: Greg defeated Keith by 1.1 points


Highest Individual Player Score: Patrick Mahommes for Mike with 37.44




MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS


Andrew (128.6) annihilated Steve (99.34)

  • Andrew had the highest scoring kicker of the week with 19 points from Justin Myers

  • Andrew had taken the highest total points for the year from Mike several weeks ago, however he lost the title this week despite putting up 128 points. Mike now has half of a point more than Andrew at 1471.02 points

  • Steve's Defense (Jacksonville, 19.5) scored more than all of his wider receivers combined.


Charles (99.14) bested Andy (78.74)

  • Charles had the highest scoring RB of the week with 25.3 points from Bijhan Robinson

  • Charles had the highest scoring player left on his bench this week, with 24.64 points from Jared Goff

  • He instead started Lamar Jackson, who was the most disappointing starter on any team this week, scoring only 7.25 points, 18.25 less than his projection

  • This matchup had the highest scoring RB duos of the week with 79.20 points from running backs.


Billy (116.66) crushed Patrick (71.30)

  • Patrick had the highest scoring WR of the week with 25.2 points from AJ Brown, who accounted for 35.3% of his total score

  • Patrick had the lowest points scored against his original projection, with a score of 51 points less than expected

  • Patrick had the most points scored from players on a single team with 46.5% of his points coming from Eagles players (Hurts, Brown)

  • Billy’s 4th win in a row eliminated Patrick from playoff contention



Mike (149.14) decimated Anthony (98.64)

  • This game had the highest combined score of the week with 247.78 points between the two teams

  • Mike had the highest scoring QB, TE, and DEF of the week, 37 points from Mahommes, 18.3 from Brock Bowers, and 34 from the Seattle Defense

  • This game had the highest scoring QB faceoff with a combined 55.28 points from the QB position


Greg (74.42) was victorious over Keith (73.32)

  • This game had the lowest combined score of the week with only 147.74 points scored between the two teams

  • Keith had the lowest “non-zero” starter of the week with only .4 points from Justin Jefferson

  • Greg had the most points left on his bench this week, with 26.6 more points available to him if he had switched in the right starters

  • For the second week in a row, Keith was the loser of the only matchup where victory could have beenb secured with a more optimal lineup (Starting Montgomery over Jeanty or Walker)



PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS


The top four teams play each other over the next two weeks, so no one has clinched a spot yet. There are six teams remaining who can still qualify for a playoff spot. Here they are in order of highest probability of making the playoffs.


Contenders

  1. Steve (8-5) | 84.4%

    • Status: Safe-ish.

    • Scenario: They are the "safest" of the bunch because of their high PF (1430). Even if they split 1-1, they are likely in.

    • Week 14: vs. What A Time To Be Alive.

  2. Keith (8-5) | 82.8%

    • Status: Safe-ish.

    • Scenario: Similar to Stable Genius, they have enough points (1370) to survive a tiebreaker against RayFinkles or Tight Ends.

    • Week 14: vs. Stable Genius Formation.

  3. Charles (8-5) | 77.3%

    • Status: Vulnerable.

    • Scenario: They play TheRayFinkles this week. This is essentially a playoff game. The winner likely gets the 3rd seed; the loser drops into the shark tank with Chubb Crunch.

    • Week 14: vs. TheRayFinkles.

  4. Greg (8-5) | 74.2%

    • Status: Vulnerable.

    • Scenario: They have the lowest PF (1291) of the top tier. They cannot afford to get into a tiebreaker with Chubb Crunch or Annual $30 Donation!. They need to win outright to stay safe.

    • Week 14: vs. Tight Ends & Loose Fronts.

  5. Andrew (7-6) | 57.8%

    • Status: The "Shark."

    • Scenario: Despite being a game back (7-6), Chubb is in an incredible position.

      • They have the #2 Points For (1470).

      • They play Annual $30 Donation! and Dirty Hippies (easier schedule than the Top 4).

      • The Path: If Chubb wins out (9-6), they are 100% in. If they go 1-1 (8-7), they still likely make it because the Top 4 teams are guaranteed to knock each other down to 8-7, and Chubb wins the tiebreaker.

  6. Mike (6-7) | 23.4%

    • Status: The "Zombie."

    • Scenario: They are the only team outside the top 5 with a pulse.

      • The Weapon: They have the #1 Points For (1471).

      • The Path: They must win out (vs Chubb, vs Stable Genius). If they reach 8-7, they hold the "Nuclear Option"—they win every single tiebreaker scenario. If the Top 4 cannibalize themselves (which is likely), an 8-7 Annual team jumps them all.

Eliminated Teams


While it looks like Andy could theoretically tie for a spot with a 10-5 record, there is no possibility that all four top teams can end up at 10-5 since there are multiple instances where they play each other. Teams with 5-8 and 4-9 records are eliminated based on being unable to reach at least 8 wins.


The following teams are statistically eliminated from playoff contention:

  • Andy (6-7)

  • Anthony (5-8)

  • Patrick (5-8)

  • Billy (4-9)