Week Twelve Analysis




TOP HEADLINE

Steve slaps down Anthony’s dream of a comeback and reclaims first place, Billy notches another win!


LEAGUE WIDE ANALYSIS

Highest Score: Patrick (143.36)

Lowest Score: Charles (92.66)

Closest Matchup: Greg (110.62) defeated Andy (108.96) by a margin of only 1.66 points

Biggest Blowout:  Patrick (143.36) defeated Mike (98.88) by a margin of 44.48 points

Top Player Score: Jamhyr Gibbs scored 44.4 points for Patrick



MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS


Matchup #1 - Andrew (110.66) bested Keith (106.92)


Clawing his way back into relevance, Andrew put up another great performance and knocked Keith out of first place in the process. It was a great weekend for Andrew with a fantasy win to match victories for the Buckeyes and Browns. OH… (io?) 


  • Keith had the highest scoring WR of the week with 29.1 points from JSN and the highest scoring TE of the week with 17.5 points from from Hunter Henry, while Andrew pulled off a victory without a top scoring positional player - instead relying on the power of teamwork!

  • The most disappointing performance of the week belonged to Keith, with Josh Allen scoring a league high 13.43 points under his projection of 23.55

  • Keith had the only team this week that could have won with a different starting lineup based on bench player scores - starting Jeanty over either Hall or Dowdle would have secured a victory over Andrew, who had a perfect lineup with zero points left on his bench


Matchup #2 - Billy (96.52) defeated Charles (92.66)


Billy managed to get a third win with a narrow defeat of Charles this week. Just a few weeks ago we were worried he was headed for the league's first-ever 0-15 season, but here he is with a 3 game win streak. Let that be a lesson that dreams really can… be crushed, but then salvaged to become less horrific! Yay!


  • The saddest game of the week, with only 189.18 points scored with both teams totals combined

  • Billy’s waiver wire pickup of Wilson was the add of the week, as Josh Jacobs sat out for the Packers and Wilson scored 25% of Billy’s point total for the week

  • For the fourth week in a row “Tight Ends & Loose Fronts” brings in less than 5 points from a tight end. Not very Tiiiiiiiiiiiiiigghhhht.


Matchup #3 - Greg (110.62) squeaked by Andy (108.96)


Greg defeated Andy, banishing him all the way down to… only 6th place? Somehow Andy keeps hanging on despite being 100 points behind everyone other than Billy for total points scored. Fantasy football, so weird. 


  • Andy honored us all by letting us witness the highest scoring kicker of the week, with 16 points from Butker. God bless.

  • This match had the highest combined score from Defenses with 48.5 points of their combined score coming from that position

  • For the second week in a row, more than 40% of Greg’s points came from players on the Rams, with Stafford and the LA Defense combining for 53.92 of his 110.62 points - The RAM Finkles?


Matchup #4 - Patrick (143.36) crushed Mike (98.88)


Mike continues to dominate in his quest to hit rock bottom. Not even Pat dared to oppose him as he aggressively snatched up his fourth straight loss. 


  • Without much help from Mike, this matchup had a combined score of 242.24 points, the highest total score of the week

  • Patrick had the highest score from any starter this week (44.4 points from Gibbs), the highest score from a Defense (25.5 points from Cleveland), and the highest QB score (32.86 points from Hurts) and the highest bench player score of the week (27.66 points from Caleb Williams).

  • Mike had the lowest “non-zero” score from any starting player with only 1 point from McLaughlin and the only “zero” score with Josh Jacobs in a starting slot after being ruled inactive just before his game


Matchup #5 - Steve (121.98) smacked down Anthony (99.64)


Feeling bulletproof after locking his victory down early on Sunday night, Steve grabs Amanda unexpectedly and says “Hail to the King baby” as he dips her down for a dramatic kiss. A triumphant soundtrack plays in the background, the angels sing, and Theo even takes a nice long nap. Life is perfect.


  • Despite neither team having the highest scoring kicker, this matchup had the highest combined kicker score of the week with a total of 25 points between both teams

  • Steve’s QB, Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record for the most completions in a single game with 300 passing yards, but unfortunately only found the endzone once and ended up with a middling 20.68 points scored

  • Anthony was the only team to start a QB that scored less than 10 points, a dubious honor!




PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS


Our future robot overlords have run the projections. More than 32,000 simulations give us the following predictions for playoff eligibility. Remember, only four teams can make it into the championship and ties are broken by the highest overall points scored.


Steve’s “Stable Genius Formation” (8-4) | 97.5%

  • Status: Safe.

  • Summary: Even if they lose out (finishing 8-7), they make the playoffs in 91% of scenarios thanks to their massive points total (2nd highest). One win locks them in.

Keith’s “What A Time To Be Alive” (8-4) | 95.3%

  • Status: Safe.

  • Summary: Similar to Stable Genius, they are virtually a lock. One win guarantees a spot. Even at 8-7, they likely survive tiebreakers.

Greg’s “TheRayFinkles” (7-5) | 66.4%

  • Status: In the Driver's Seat.

  • Summary: They control their destiny more than Tight Ends because they hold the tiebreaker over them in Points For (1216 vs 1204), though it's close.

  • Key Game: Week 14 vs. Tight Ends & Loose Fronts. That game will swing their odds by ~40%.

Charles’ “Tight Ends & Loose Fronts” (7-5) | 59.3%

  • Status: Vulnerable.

  • Summary: They are currently in the 4th spot, but their schedule is brutal (vs Not Keith, vs RayFinkles, vs What A Time).

  • Danger: If they lose to Not Keith this week (Week 13), their odds plummet

Andrew’s “Chubb Crunch” (6-6) | 45.7%

  • Status: The "Sleeping Giant."

  • Summary: Despite being 6-6, they have the #1 Points For in the entire league. This means they win every multi-team tiebreaker.

  • Path: They likely need to go 2-1 to get to 8-7. If they finish 8-7, they will jump over any 8-7 team with fewer points (which is everyone). If they win out (9-6), they are a lock.

Andy’s “Not Keith” (6-6) | 14.8%

  • Status: Needs Help.

  • Summary: Their problem is points. They have the lowest PF of any contender (1133). They lose almost all tiebreakers.

  • Path: They essentially need to win out to reach 9-6. Finishing 8-7 likely leaves them on the outside looking in because they can't win a tiebreaker against Chubb, RayFinkles, or Tight Ends.

Mike’s “Annual $30 Donation!” (5-7) | 8.5%

  • Status: Miracle Territory.

  • Summary: They need to win out (8-7) AND have chaos occur above them (RayFinkles and Tight Ends losing out). Their high PF (1321) gives them a fighting chance if they can get to 8 wins.

Anthony’s “Hawk Tua Tagovailoa” (5-7) | 6.4%

  • Status: Miracle Territory.

  • Summary: Needs to win out and pray.

Patrick’s “Pepe Silvia Squad” (5-7) | 6.2%

  • Status: Miracle Territory.

  • Summary: Like Hawk Tua, they need to win out to reach 8-7. However, their PF (1234) is lower than the other "miracle" teams, making their path slightly harder.

  • Week 13: They play Dirty Hippies. A loss here mathematically eliminates them.

Billy’s “Dirty Hippies” (3-9) | 0.0%

  • Status: Mathematically Eliminated.

  • Summary: Despite winning this week, Billy needed losses from the 3rd and 4th place teams to stand a chance, which didn’t happen. He still has the opportunity to be the one that eliminates his remaining opponents and in week 15 he could drop a crushing blow to Andrew if he still has a playoff chance at that point.