Week Three Analysis




Week Three - Biggest Story

Steve hangs 140 points, crushes Anthony, jumps to first place





League-Wide Summary


  • Highest Score: Steve (139.76)
  • Lowest Score: Andy (74.26)
  • Largest Margin of Victory: 40.74 (Steve over Anthony)
  • Smallest Margin of Victory: 8.68 (Greg over Andy)
  • Top Individual Performer: Caleb Williams (37.12 points for Patrick)





Steve (139.76) vs. Anthony (99.02)


This matchup saw Steve riding the Viking’s Defense Party Boat to a decisive victory over a respectable performance from Anthony’s squad

  • Double Digits: While he did have a couple of major overperformers, the rest of Steve’s team kept the party going with double digit performances from every single player aside from his kicker.
  • Performance vs. Projection: Steve’s team didn't just win; they shattered expectations. Their final score of 139.76 was a staggering 33.33 points higher than their projected score of 106.43, representing the largest overperformance of the week.
  • Positional Group Comparison: Steve's Minnesota Defense erupted for 36 points, outscoring every other individual player in the matchup. The 16.5-point gap between their defense and Anthony’s 19.5-point effort from the Pittsburgh was a decisive factor. On any other day the point total from PIT would have been a decisive defensive performance.
  • Late-Round TE Punt: Anthony’s draft strategy involved waiting longer than any other team to select a tight end, finally drafting Dallas Goedert in the 14th round. This worked out okay this week as Goedert’s 9.3 points were serviceable, but instead it was his receiving core that let him down.

Greg (82.94) vs. Andy (74.26)


In a matchup featuring the week's lowest-scoring winner and lowest-scoring loser, it was less like a party and more like funeral. Greg brough home a win, moving both teams to identical 2-1 records. 

  • Win by Attrition Narrative: This was a victory determined by which team simply had a "less catastrophic week". The combined score of 157.20 was the lowest of any game, with both teams failing to put up impressive numbers.
  • Draft Capital Performance Analysis: The primary cause of Andy's collapse was the goose egg from his #1 draft pick, CeeDee Lamb, who was injured early in his game and is now doubtful for next week.
  • A Failure of Depth: Andy’s draft strategy was heavily focused on wide receivers, selecting more players at that position (7) than any other team in the league. Despite this volume-based approach, the strategy failed completely in Week 3 with a total of only 5.5 points from receivers.
  • Positional Group Comparison: In a game decided by only 8.68 points, the quarterback battle was critical. Dak Prescott (21.96) from Greg’s team outscored Kyler Murray for Andy (16.06) by 5.9 points. As low as those scores are, the difference would could have been close to swinging the game if the scores were reversed, accounting for nearly 68% of the final margin of victory.

Keith (116.42) vs. Andrew (97.62)


Keith secured a comfortable 18.8-point victory, leapfrogging Andrew in the standings as they vied for their pathetic 7th and 8th place positions. Both teams have work to do if they’re going to figure out how to get out of their respective funks.

  • First-Round TE Disappointment: Andrew’s draft strategy hinged on securing an elite advantage at tight end by drafting Travis Kelce earlier than any other TE was taken in the entire draft (pick 2.04). That strategy backfired spectacularly this week, as Kelce produced a meager 2.60 points, one of the biggest busts of the week relative to draft capital.
  • Bench Management: The most notable story from this matchup was the points left on the bench. Keith left an incredible 28.40 points on the bench from running back David Montgomery, a player selected in the 6th round of the draft (6.07 overall).
  • "Win in Spite of a Bust" Narrative: The victory was also impressive as it came despite a poor performance from one of the team's most valuable players. Justin Jefferson, Keith’s first round pick, scored only 7.50 points, but the team's other starters provided enough production to overcome this significant dud.
  • Touchdown Dependency: Andrew’s scoring profile showed sustainability, but lacked volume. Only 10.2% of their 97.62 points came directly from touchdowns. This indicates a solid foundation of scoring from yardage, but the lack of explosive touchdown plays ultimately capped their scoring potential and contributed to the loss.

Mike (114.66) vs. Patrick (100.14)


In a battle between two top-tier teams, Mike walked away with the win by leaning into a concentrated draft strategy that paid off handsomely.

  • Living and Dying with the Chiefs: Mike's draft strategy involved assembling the league's largest "team cluster" by drafting three players from the Kansas City Chiefs. This approach was a clear success in Week 3, as Patrick Mahomes (15.16 points) and the Kansas City Defense (15.50 points) combined to score over 30 points for the roster.
  • Roster Depth Analysis: Patrick may have lost, but their drafting acumen is undeniable. Benched quarterback Caleb Williams posted the single highest individual score of the week (37.12), an incredible value considering he was a 10th-round draft pick (10.09 overall).
  • Positional Group Comparison: The game was largely decided by the running back groups. The trio of running backs for Mike combined for an impressive 34.30 points. This was significantly better than the 25.60 points from Patrick's RBs, with the 8.7-point difference proving critical.
  • "Boom/Bust" Player Analysis: The matchup was also influenced by boom-and-bust performances. Mike received a massive "boom" performance from their kicker, Chase McLaughlin (21.00 points), while Patrick was let down by a "bust" performance from James Conner (3.70 points).

Charles (108.52) vs. Billy (84.82)


This matchup, which pitted a top contender against the league's last-place team, was a perfect illustration of how different draft-day gambles can lead to vastly different weekly outcomes.

  • A Tale of Two Draft Strategies: This game featured a fascinating clash of draft philosophies. Charles won using a "Zero RB" strategy, de-prioritizing the running back position to build strength elsewhere. They were carried to victory not by their RBs, but by their elite quarterback, Lamar Jackson.
  • Late-Round QB Gambit Fails: In direct contrast, Billy employed a "Late Round QB" strategy, waiting longer than any other team to draft a quarterback and selecting Jordan Love in the 13th round. This gambit failed this week, as Love's 14.12 points could not compete with the elite production of the opposing QB.
  • Positional Group Comparison: The quarterback battle was the deciding factor. Lamar Jackson's 33.02 points created an insurmountable advantage over the 14.12 points from Jordan Love. The 18.9-point gap at the QB position alone accounted for 80% of the final 23.70-point margin of victory.
  • Bench Management: A key benching error prevented Billy from making the game more competitive. Starting Malik Nabers (1.30) over Ricky Pearsall Jr. (11.70) cost the team 10.4 points. A more optimal lineup would have resulted in a much closer final score of 108.52 to 95.22.